MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
52
Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment
80
Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted
29
Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
70
Thin market at extreme price — vulnerable to price manipulation
20
Resolves in ~509d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Low liquidityManipulation riskLong-dated
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If the House member sworn in for KS-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Kalshi
0%25%50%75%100%
Kalshi: 93¢