Kalshiother

When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?

15 outcomes

13%Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade →

ResolvesMar 1, 2027261d 0h3.4K vol7\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

Also trades on Polymarket (30 outcomes)

Price History

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Raw gap3¢

Fee-adjusted edge2¢

Positive EV for 60h (10 snapshots)

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted

Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

Resolves in ~202d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk

Low liquidityLong-dated

Order Book

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket13¢

Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If Fannie Mae confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immed...

Cross-Platform: Before Jan 1, 2027

Kalshi13¢

Kalshi12¢

Kalshi9¢

Kalshi8¢

Kalshi6¢

Spread7¢

+4.5% fee-adjusted edge

Consensus Landscape

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Kalshi: 6¢

Kalshi contracts below 20¢ show significant favorite-longshot bias. historically outperform taker (market) orders by ~20%.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122