Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
Resolves in ~202d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
If Fannie Mae confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immed...
Kalshi contracts below 20¢ show significant favorite-longshot bias. historically outperform taker (market) orders by ~20%.
Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122