Kalshiother

When will Cluely officially announce an IPO?

15 outcomes

5%Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade →

ResolvesApr 1, 2026Resolved359 vol4\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment

Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

Thin market at extreme price — vulnerable to price manipulation

Resolves in ~292d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk

Low liquidityManipulation riskLong-dated

Order Book

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If Cluely confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediate...

PolymarketN/A Kalshi

5¢

PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Kalshi: 5¢

Taking existing offers on low-priced Kalshi contracts has historically yielded -60% avg returns. Consider placing instead of taking existing offers.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122