Texas Republican Senate nominee?

ResolutionThe resolution criterion is specifically 'wins the nomination' — Texas uses a primary runoff system, meaning if no candidate clears 50% in the March primary, a May runoff follows, and this market doesn't resolve until that process completes. A trader who mistakes a strong primary showing (but no majority) for a resolved outcome could exit too early or misread intermediate price signals as over- or under-reactions.

CalibrationResearch on 292M trades shows that long-horizon political contracts on Kalshi underprice favorites — a contract trading well above 50% likely reflects a true probability even higher than the displayed price. The average return on Kalshi contracts is negative before fees, so the edge here isn't 'buy and hold' — it's specifically buying the mispriced side and trimming as the calibration bias unwinds closer to resolution when prices converge toward true probability.