MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Structural Analysis
AI-generatedThis is a long-dated binary on an annual aggregate figure, which means the market will compress toward 50% for months before data accumulates enough to push it decisively — that's the universal horizon effect at work, where distant markets systematically misprice probabilities toward the middle. The 'other' category sits outside the well-studied political/sports domains, but the long horizon means any position taken now is fighting a structural gravity pulling prices toward 50% regardless of underlying fundamentals.
ResolutionThe threshold is specifically the BLS 'information sector' layoff count — not tech industry self-reported trackers like Layoffs.fyi, which use different definitions and consistently produce different totals. Traders anchoring to media headlines or aggregator sites will be pricing a different underlying variable than what actually resolves this contract.
CalibrationResearch on Kalshi shows large trades amplify underconfidence — favorites get underpriced and longshots get overpriced — but this effect is strongest in politics; in 'other' category markets the bias is less predictable. What IS reliable: contracts priced below 10 cents lose over 60% of capital on average, so any position structured as a longshot here carries historically brutal expected value regardless of your directional view.
RisksBLS data undergoes revisions, and the information sector classification can shift slightly between preliminary and final releases — a number near the 447K threshold could flip resolution on a revision that receives zero media coverage. Volume is substantial (as of 2026-04-14) but the spread and OI suggest a concentrated position structure, meaning a few large traders dominate price discovery and can move the market on thin retail participation.
Questions worth asking
- Does the current market price reflect BLS information sector data or is it anchored to broader tech layoff trackers that use a different methodology?
- If 2026 layoffs are tracking above or below pace through Q1, is that signal already fully priced in by the concentrated large traders who dominate this market?
- Where does the 447K threshold sit relative to historical BLS information sector volatility — is this a threshold that has been crossed multiple times, or is it a rare tail event?
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Low Risk5-dimension assessment
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vol=$13,506,506, spread=0.0¢, OI=109872
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σ=0.66%/day, AC=-0.00, 31 points
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Resolution relies on official BLS employment data for the information sector, which is publicly available, objective, and historically reliable. The binary threshold (447,000+ layoffs) is numerically precise and verifiable. Primary risk stems from potential BLS methodology changes or definitional shifts in sector classification, but these are minimal given the agency's historical consistency.
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Platform default: kalshi
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292d to resolution, volume stable
Order Book
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi
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Kalshi: 86¢