Kalshiother

Iowa Senate winner? (2028)

2 outcomes

64%Republican party

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ResolvesNov 7, 20291244d 20h60 vol5\u00A2 spread

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment

Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted

Price near 50% — maximum uncertainty, expect swings

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

Resolves in ~1245d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk

Low liquidityLong-dated

Order Book

Related Contracts

OverlappingPredictit63¢

Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Iowa? — Republican

The 2026 Iowa Senate race and 2028 Iowa Senate race are two years apart. The 2026 outcome could influence 2028 dynamics but they are distinct elections.

CausalKalshi46¢

Wisconsin Senate winner? (2028)

Senate races in Iowa and Wisconsin are both Midwestern and may experience correlated national trends, but state-specific factors dominate outcomes. Minimal causal relationship.

CausalKalshi87¢

Indiana Senate winner? (2028)

Senate races in neighboring Midwestern states may have weak correlations due to national political trends, but outcomes are largely independent. Minimal causal relationship.

CausalKalshi5¢

Illinois Senate winner? (2028)

Senate races in neighboring states (Iowa and Illinois) may share some national political trend effects, but state-specific factors dominate. Minimal causal relationship.

CausalKalshi85¢

Idaho Senate winner? (2028)

Senate races in Iowa (blue-leaning Midwest) and Idaho (red-leaning Mountain) are likely independent despite both being 2028 races. No meaningful causal relationship.

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

PolymarketN/A Kalshi

64¢

PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Kalshi: 64¢