Donald Trump out as President?

ResolutionThe death clause is a genuine resolution trap: if Trump dies in office, the market doesn't resolve normally — it freezes at last traded price and hands discretionary settlement authority to an Outcome Review Committee, meaning your position could be settled at a price that has nothing to do with the true outcome. This creates an asymmetric scenario where the 'correct' directional bet (Yes) might still lose money if the triggering event is death rather than resignation or removal.

CalibrationResearch on Kalshi political markets shows they achieve outcome-correctness only 78% of the time — the lowest accuracy benchmark cited — meaning the market price here is less reliable as a true-probability estimate than it would be on other platforms. For long-dated political contracts, prices systematically compress toward 50%, understating both very high and very low true probabilities; a contract priced as a deep longshot is likely even less probable than the price implies, but the compression effect also means any genuine increase in removal probability would be slow to show up in price movement.