Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted
Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
Resolves in ~125d — longer horizon, lower time pressure
If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi contracts below 20¢ show significant favorite-longshot bias. historically outperform taker (market) orders by ~20%.
Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122