Kalshieconomics

CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?

16 outcomes

12%Exactly 3.6%

ResolvesSep 11, 2026125d 7h110 vol6\u00A2 spread

Price History

Live Economic Dataas of 2026-05-07

CPI All Urban

330.3index+0.9%

Core CPI (ex Food/Energy)

334.2index+0.2%

10Y Breakeven Inflation

2.45%+1.2%

US Crude Oil Stocks

457.2Kthousand barrels-0.5%

US Crude Oil Production

13.6Kthousand b/d-0.1%

FREDEIA

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

Resolves in ~125d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Low liquidity

Order Book

Source: Kalshi

If the CPI core year-over-year is exactly 3.6% in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consensus Landscape

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Kalshi: 12¢

Kalshi contracts below 20¢ show significant favorite-longshot bias. historically outperform taker (market) orders by ~20%.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122